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Spencer Bokat-Lindell, a staff writer at the New York Times,
Nearly nine months after riotersto stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election, a question still lingers over how to place it in history: Were the events of Jan. 6 the doomed conclusion of an unusually anti-democratic moment in American political life, or a preview of where the country is still heading?
Richard L. Hasen, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, School of Law and an expert in election law, believes the second possibility shouldn’t be ruled out. In, he wrote that “The United States faces a serious risk that the 2024 presidential election, and other future U.S. elections, will not be conducted fairly, and that the candidates taking office will not reflect the free choices made by eligible voters under previously announced election rules.”
It could be a bloodless coup, he warns, executed not by rioters with nooses but “lawyers in fine suits”: Between January and June, Republican-controlled legislatures passedto increase their control over how elections are run, stripping secretaries of state of their power and making it easier to overturn results.
How much danger is American democracy really in, and what can be done to safeguard it? Here’s what people are saying.
How democracy could collapse in 2024
In Hasen’s view, there are three mechanisms by which the 2024 election could be overturned:
- State legislatures, purporting to exercise the authority of either the Constitution or an 1887 federal law called the Electoral Count Act, swapping in their own slate of electors for president, potentially with the blessing of a conservative Supreme Court and a Republican-controlled Congress.
- Fraudulent or suppressive election administration or vote counting by norm- or law-breaking officials.
- Vigilante action that prevents voting, interferes with ballot counting or interrupts the legitimate transfer of power.
These mechanisms are not outside the realm of possibility:
- Recent reporting from Robert Costa and Bob Woodward revealed that the previous administration , hatched by the prominent conservative lawyer John Eastman, for former Vice President Mike Pence to throw out the electoral votes of key swing states on the basis that they had competing slates of electors. Next time around, “with the right pieces in place, (President Donald) Trump could succeed,” the Times columnist Jamelle Bouie . “All he needs is a rival slate of electoral votes from contested states, state officials and state legislatures willing to intervene on his behalf, a supportive Republican majority in either house of Congress, and a sufficiently pliant Supreme Court majority.”
- On top of passing voting administration laws, Republicans have also who espouse election conspiracy theories to run for positions like secretary of state and county clerk. , 10 of the 15 declared Republican candidates for secretary of state in five swing states have either declared the 2020 election stolen or demanded its invalidation or investigation.
- Skepticism of or hostility toward election administration is widespread among Republican voters as well, of whom still say that President Biden did not win in November. That conviction, Reuters in June, has sparked a nationwide intimidation campaign against election officials and their families, who continue to face threats of hanging, firing squads, torture and bomb blasts with vanishingly One in three election officials feel unsafe because of their job and nearly one in five listed threats to their lives as a job-related concern, to an April survey from the Brennan Center.
“The stage is thus being set for chaos,” Robert Kaganin The Washington Post. Given a more strategically contested election, “Biden would find himself where other presidents have been — where Andrew Jackson was during the nullification crisis, or where Abraham Lincoln was after the South seceded — navigating without rules or precedents, making his own judgments about what constitutional powers he does and doesn’t have.”
Some experts worry about democratic backsliding even in the event of a legitimate Republican victory in 2024, Ashley Parkerfor The Washington Post. In such a scenario, Trump or a similarly anti-democratic figure might set about remaking the political and electoral system to consolidate power.
“We often think that what we should be waiting for is fascists and communists marching in the streets, but nowadays, the ways democracies often die is through legal things at the ballot box — so things that can be both legal and antidemocratic at the same time,” said Daniel Ziblatt, a Harvard political scientist. “Politicians use the letter of the law to subvert the spirit of the law.”
Experts told Parker that perhaps the most proximate example is Hungary under, who returned to power in 2010 after being ousted in 2002 and over the past decade has into a soft autocracy. of the country’s government include Tucker Carlson, who in August for the United States, and the high-profile Conservative Political Action Committee,
Brian Klaas, a political scientist at University College London,there are many reasons — the threat of primary challenges against Republicans who defy “Stop the Steal” orthodoxy, gerrymandering, the influence of social media — that might not just continue but accelerate: “There are no countervailing forces. There’s nothing that rewards being a sober moderate who believes in democracy and tries to govern by consensus.”